Climate change : current and future impacts on erosive rainfall in Calgary, Alberta

Abstract

Rainfall data collected every five minutes between 1988 and 2017 at the Huntington Hills rainfall gauge in Calgary Alberta and downscaled CanRCM4 climate change data for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios are used to calculate current erosive rainfall value (R-value) for use in RUSLE calculations and estimate future change in R-value respectively. R-values have increased by 2.14 times since 1990. R-values are expected to increase by 28% (RCP-4.5) and 31% (RCP8.5). This increase is slightly lower than values reported by other literature, though show a predicted increase over time. Further studies should focus on 3 areas, expand scope by including more stations, investigate regression-based formulae, and estimate R-values based on daily rainfall. The potential for increased negative effects on all stakeholders warrants a careful but expedited expansion of this study to ensure the certainty of the magnitude of R-value change for the City of Calgary as a whole.