Predicting current and future potential geographic distribution of the invasive dog-strangling vine (Vincetoxicum rossicum) in North America

Abstract

V. rossicum has become increasingly invasive in North America and is particularly difficult to eradicate once introduced. A suitability model that assessed the likelihood of new invasions through analysis of predictive variables was necessary to interpret how the invasive vine’s potential distribution might change over time. The aim of this research was to create a species distribution model using MaxEnt software to estimate current and future potential geographic distribution of V. rossicum using actual site-specific observations of the invasive plant and predictive variables. The purpose of this work was to provide support for early detection of V. rossicum to be able to help reduce the economic impact of new invasions. The results showed that the AUC values for each time-period asses were greater than 0.89 when cross-validation was applied, and greater than 0.91 when bootstrapping was applied, indicating the results are accurate. The greatest area of relatively suitable habitat for the vine was found to be under current circumstances, and suitable habitat areas decreased under future climate change scenarios. The main environmental factors that affected the distribution of V. rossicum according to percent contribution and percent permutation importance were: BIO1 (annual mean temperature), BIO8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), BIO15 (precipitation seasonality), BIO18 (precipitation of warmest quarter), nightlights, and pH. The main environmental factors that affected the distribution of V. rossicum according to the Jackknife test were: BIO1 (annual mean temperature), BIO8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter), BIO15 (precipitation seasonality), BIO18 (precipitation of coldest quarter), and pH. Future climate was predicted to be less ideal for the survival of V. rossicum, this maybe beneficial for invasive plant management. However, for local plants that share similar habitat distributions and characteristics as V. rossicum, this might indicate a future risk under climate change pressure and pressure from V. rossicum.