PV potential projection under climate change and rooftop PV potential estimation
Abstract
Climate change may cause changes in cloud cover to affect solar radiation, thereby affecting the solar PV
potential. PV potential has an influence on the public's adoption of solar PV systems as well as the
efficacy and efficiency of municipal PV subsidy schemes. The purpose of the research includes two main
parts: the first is to examine the probable climate change impact on PV potential in Alberta and British
Columbia, Canada, second is to evaluate the rooftop PV potential of a specific location with minor PV
potential change from the result of the first part. Two sets of rooftops were selected for comparison. Set
1 describes a ‘complete set’ of rooftops. Set 2 describes a subset of relatively optimal rooftops for PV
installation. The climate data of the solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed in 1995-2014 and
2031-2050 two periods from the CMIP6 were used to estimate the PV potential. The total Levelized Cost
of Energy (LCOE) was calculated to analyze the economic feasibility of rooftop PV systems. The results
show that climate change will mainly affect the future (2031-2050) PV potential by about 1%. The City of
Vancouver with a small future PV change (-0.28%) was selected for the rooftop PV potential assessment.
Area Solar Radiation tool from ArcGIS Pro was used to calculate the solar radiation of Vancouver.
Rooftop PV power generation in Vancouver from Set 2 is approximately 7% of total electricity
consumption yearly. In addition, most of the rooftops generated much more PV in July than in
December. With subsidies from the government, the LCOE value of Set 2 rooftop PV is much lower than
the BC average electricity price, and 96.2% of the Set 2 rooftop PV systems can pay for themselves
within five years, while only 41.3% of Set 1 roofs can pay the investment back in a 5-year production. In
conclusion, climate change in 2031-2050 is expected to have little effect on PV potential. Rooftop PV on
suitable roof surfaces is economically feasible and can effectively reduce power consumption in
Vancouver, especially in summer.
Identifier (Other)
DOI: 10.25316/IR-17818Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
The potential effects of climate change on the habitat range of the Vancouver Island marmot (2016)
(Electronic version published by Vancouver Island University, 3/30/2016)Poster presentation of a research project which calculated and mapped the Vancouver Island marmot’s current potential habitat range as well as the projected potential habitat range. -
Little known and little understood: Development of a small wetland assessment field card to identify potential breeding habitat for amphibians
(FORREX, 2008)The effect of timber harvesting on small wetland habitats and associated amphibians has not been studied in the Pacific Northwest. In 2004, we initiated a study of three forested sites containing 70+ small wetlands in ... -
Supporting all learners to develop their personal potential through the social-emotional competences of self-determination and self-regulation
(Electronic version published by Vancouver Island University, 2017)As the education system in British Columbia is shifting to embrace the research and understanding of how students learn most effectively, educators have been tasked with providing opportunities for students to work through ...
